New Home Sales Rise in September as Mortgage Rates Ease

Home buyers moved off the sidelines in September following the Federal Reserve’s recent move to cut interest rates for the first time in four years.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes in September increased 4.1% to a 738,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised August number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in September is up 6.3% compared to a year earlier.

“Despite challenging affordability conditions, home builder confidence edged higher in October as they anticipate that mortgage rates will gradually, in an uneven manner, moderate in the coming months,” said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “There is a significant need for additional housing supply, as many prospective home buyers are entering the market.”

“Following the Fed’s actions in September, mortgage rates fell to 6.18%, from 6.5% in August,” said Jing Fu, director of forecasting and analysis for NAHB. “However, new home sales will likely weaken in October due to a recent rise in long-term rates.”

A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 738,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.

New single-family home inventory in September remained elevated at a level of 470,000, up 8.0% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 7.6 months’ supply at the current building pace. Completed for-sale new homes rose to 108,000, the highest level since 2009.

The median new home sale price in September was $426,300, essentially unchanged from a year ago. The Census data reveals a gain for new home sales priced below $300,000, which made up 17% of new home sales in September, compared to 14% a year ago.

Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 19.2% in the Midwest, 1.1% in the South and 3.4% in the West. New home sales are down 1.1% in the Northeast.